FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger across every in-season league: each recent slate’s strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Each row is tagged with its sport; pick a single league above.
Side
Showing all leans — 449 of 734 landed (61%).
Sep 21, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓WNBADeWanna BonnerO 3.5 REBgot 6
- ✗NFLColby ParkinsonO 29.5 REC YDSgot 15
- ✗WNBAArike OgunbowaleO 16.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗WNBAAngel ReeseO 11.5 REBgot 10
- ✓WNBAJessica ShepardO 12.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓WNBAJordin CanadaO 6.5 ASTgot 9
- ✗NFLDavante AdamsU 4.5 RECgot 8
- ✓NFLKyren WilliamsO 15.5 FSgot 15.7
- ✓WNBAPauline AstierO 2.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓WNBAPaige BueckersO 19.5 PTSgot 30
- ✓WNBAJonquel JonesO 8.5 REBgot 12
- ✓WNBAAlyssa ThomasO 14.5 PTSgot 15
Sep 20, 2026
9 of 12 landed- ✓NFLKenny GainwellO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗NFLColston LovelandO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓NFLJaxon Smith-NjigbaO 81.5 REC YDSgot 155
- ✗NFLCooper KuppO 23.5 REC YDSgot 20
- ✓NFLTyler AllgeierU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓MLSAnders DreyerU 3.5 SOTgot 2
- ✓MLSManu DuahU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✗WNBAChelsea GrayO 5.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓WNBAAriel AtkinsO 19.5 FSgot 25
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBAlec BurlesonU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓WNBARae BurrellO 16.5 PTSgot 20
Sep 19, 2026
11 of 12 landed- ✓WNBAKamilla CardosoU 5.5 ASTgot 2
- ✓WNBAAngel ReeseU 2.5 3PMgot 1
- ✓MLSCarles GilU 3.5 SOTgot 3
- ✓MLSOusseni BoudaU 5.5 SHgot 1
- ✓MLSSean ZawadzkiU 2.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSIdan ToklomatiU 1.5 Ggot 0
- ✓WNBAJordin CanadaU 2.5 3PMgot 1
- ✓MLSPep BielU 1.5 SOTgot 0
- ✓CFBKewan LacyU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓CFBCam CookO 94.5 RUSH YDSgot 123
- ✓CFBTrinidad ChamblissO 272.5 PASS YDSgot 363
- ✗CFBBaylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 5
Sep 18, 2026
7 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✓WNBAKelsey MitchellU 33.5 PTSgot 33
- ✗WNBACourtney WilliamsO 25.5 FSgot 22
- ✗WNBANatasha HowardO 21.5 PRAgot 17
- ✗WNBALexie HullO 9.5 PRAgot 7
- ✓WNBAKayla McBrideU 20.5 PTSgot 16
- ✓CFBCooper BarkateO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓MLBCole YoungU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBSteven KwanU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBBrandon MarshU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✗MLBBrayan RocchioU 1.5 TBgot 3
- ✓CFBCarlos HernandezO 60.5 REC YDSgot 69
- –MLBChandler SimpsonO 5 FSgot 5
Sep 17, 2026
11 of 12 landed- ✓WNBADeWanna BonnerO 3.5 REBgot 5
- ✗NFLJameson WilliamsO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓WNBAErica WheelerO 3.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓NFLDawson KnoxO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓WNBASaniya RiversU 2.5 3PMgot 0
- ✓WNBADearica HambyO 11.5 PTSgot 14
- ✓WNBANatasha CloudU 19.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJonathan ArandaU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 1
- ✓NFLDJ MooreU 64.5 REC YDSgot 0
- ✓MLBTrea TurnerU 1.5 TBgot 0
Sep 16, 2026
11 of 12 landed- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 3.5 TBgot 2
- ✓MLBJordan WalkerU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBBrandon MarshU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBAlec BurlesonU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBGeraldo PerdomoU 1.5 TBgot 1
- ✓MLBGunnar HendersonU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✗MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✓MLBFrederick FreemanU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBXavier EdwardsU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBBryson StottU 1.5 TBgot 0
Sep 15, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBIvan HerreraU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✓MLBGeraldo PerdomoU 1.5 TBgot 1
- ✗MLBJordan WalkerO 5 FSgot 0
- ✓MLBAlec BurlesonU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✓MLBJonathan ArandaU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBFrederick FreemanU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✗MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 2
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 3
- ✓MLBBryson StottU 1.5 TBgot 0
Sep 14, 2026
6 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✗NFLCourtland SuttonO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓MLBXander BogaertsU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLBJackson MerrillU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✓NFLRJ HarveyO 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✓MLBIvan HerreraU 1.5 TBgot 0
- ✗MLBIan HappU 1.5 TBgot 2
- –MLBJordan WalkerO 5 FSgot 5
- ✓NFLTravis KelceO 41.5 REC YDSgot 71
- ✓MLBFernando TatisU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗NFLTroy FranklinO 3.5 RECgot 0
- ✗MLBNicholas HoernerU 1.5 TBgot 2
- ✓MLBBo BichetteU 1.5 TBgot 0
Sep 13, 2026
7 of 11 landed · 1 push- ✗NFLKenny GainwellO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓MLSJon GallagherU 1.5 SOTgot 0
- ✗NFLRachaad WhiteO 22.5 RUSH YDSgot 22
- ✗NFLJakobi MeyersO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓NFLAaron RodgersU 3.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓NFLJacory Croskey-MerrittU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓MLSFacundo TorresU 1.5 SOTgot 0
- ✓MLBErnie ClementU 1.5 Hgot 0
- ✓MLBJunior CamineroU 1.5 Hgot 1
- ✗MLSDor TurgemanO 1.5 SHgot 1
- –MLSBrad StuverU 5 SVgot 5
- ✓NFLKhalil ShakirO 8.5 FSgot 9
Sep 12, 2026
10 of 12 landed- ✓CFBDrew MestemakerO 212.5 PASS YDSgot 317
- ✓CFBRyan WingoO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓MLSPep BielU 2.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSIdan ToklomatiU 1.5 Ggot 1
- ✓MLSDániel SallóiU 3.5 SOTgot 0
- ✓MLSSean ZawadzkiU 1.5 SHgot 1
- ✓MLSMaxwell WoledziU 1.5 SHgot 0
- ✓CFBWyatt YoungO 50.5 REC YDSgot 121
- ✓CFBJeremiah SmithO 6.5 RECgot 8
- ✓CFBBaylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✗MLBJulio RodríguezU 1.5 Hgot 3
- ✗MLBChase MeidrothO 3.5 FSgot 2
Sep 11, 2026
1 of 2 landed- ✗CFBCJ BaileyU 244.5 PASS YDSgot 281
- ✓CFBJamal RobertsU 1.5 RECgot 1
Sep 10, 2026
4 of 8 landed- ✗NFLColby ParkinsonO 18.5 REC YDSgot 6
- ✓NFLChristian McCaffreyO 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓NFLKyren WilliamsO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗NFLPuka NacuaO 89.5 REC YDSgot 74
- ✗CFBCooper BarkateO 4.5 RECgot 2
- ✓CFBCharMar BrownU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓NFLDavante AdamsU 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗NFLMatthew StaffordO 2.5 PASS TDgot 0
Sep 9, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✗NFLCooper KuppO 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓MLSHany MukhtarU 3.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSAlonso CoelloU 1.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSNathan HarrielU 4.5 SHgot 0
- ✗MLSBruno DamianiU 1.5 Ggot 3
- ✓MLSSean ZawadzkiU 2.5 SHgot 1
- ✓NFLJaxon Smith-NjigbaO 81.5 REC YDSgot 122
- ✗NFLRomeo DoubsO 37.5 REC YDSgot 0
- ✗NFLRhamondre StevensonU 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓MLSIván AnguloU 2.5 SHgot 2
- ✓MLSPavel BuchaU 3.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSTristan MuyumbaU 3.5 SHgot 1
Sep 7, 2026
2 of 2 landed- ✓CFBKevin JenningsO 269.5 PASS YDSgot 430
- ✓CFBDerrick McFallU 6.5 FSgot 2.2
Sep 6, 2026
1 of 3 landed- ✗CFBDeuce AlexanderU 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓CFBTrinidad ChamblissO 272.5 PASS YDSgot 336
- ✗CFBKewan LacyU 2.5 RECgot 4
Sep 5, 2026
8 of 12 landed- ✓MLSPep BielU 3.5 SOTgot 1
- ✓MLSLawrence EnnaliU 4.5 SHgot 2
- ✓MLSNathan HarrielU 3.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSAnders DreyerU 3.5 SOTgot 1
- ✗CFBT.J. MooreO 45.5 REC YDSgot 31
- ✓MLSKévin DenkeyU 1.5 Ggot 0
- ✗CFBJackson WilliamsU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗CFBLangston LewisO 5.5 RECgot 0
- ✗CFBAveion ChenaultU 2.5 RECgot 6
- ✓CFBBrandon InnissO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓MLSSteven MoreiraU 2.5 SHgot 0
- ✓MLSDarren YapiU 4.5 SHgot 1
Sep 4, 2026
5 of 6 landed- ✓CFBCooper BarkateU 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✓CFBBryson DonelsonU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✓CFBJayden MaiavaO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗CFBDarian MensahU 2.5 PASS TDgot 5
- ✓MLSAgustin OjedaU 1.5 SHgot 1
- ✓CFBCharMar BrownU 1.5 RECgot 0
The segment records above cover every settled lean across all leagues; each day’s list shows the top leans as examples.
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.