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San Diego TorerosAdrian McIntyre
#2 · G · 6' 3" · 195 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 11.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
11.3 PTS(×1.02 context)
L5 10.4 · L10 12.8 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 16.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 10.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — @ SEA
Mar 7, 2026
485thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
SEA allows 8.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 106 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adrian McIntyre has gone over 10.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 485th-most PTS of 726 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.