UConn Huskies

Alex Karaban Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Apr 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alex Karaban has gone over 28.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 29.7 FS

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Verdict

vs 28.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency61supports it

Projection

30.0 FS(×0.99 context)

L5 32.2 · L10 30.2 · med 34.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 25.7 · ceil 35.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	14/17
	71%	12/17
	65%	11/17
28.5Current	47%	8/17
	47%	8/17
	47%	8/17
	47%	8/17

Last 17 games — FS per game vs. line 28.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 28.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%6/10Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

1 day100%1/1Low

2 days0%0/1Low

3+ days46%6/13Low

Last matchup — @ MICH

Apr 7, 2026

498thof 708 in FS allowed to forwards

MICH allows 17.1 FS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 79 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Alex Karaban has gone over 28.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. MICH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 498th-most FS of 708 teams (17.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.