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Arkansas State Red WolvesAly Tounkara
#13 · F · 7' 0" · 215 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 6.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
7.4 PTS(×1.05 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 6.8 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.8 · ceil 9.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 6.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — vs GASO
Mar 6, 2026
143rdof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
GASO allows 9.9 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 63 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Aly Tounkara has gone over 6.5 PTS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. GASO has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 143rd-most PTS of 708 teams (9.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.