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Missouri State BearsAntwan Burnett
#4 · G · 6' 5" · 215 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 5.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency5argues against it
Projection
5.1 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 5.9 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 8.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 5.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — @ FIU
Feb 21, 2026
282ndof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
FIU allows 10.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 102 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Antwan Burnett has gone over 5.5 PTS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. FIU has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 282nd-most PTS of 726 teams (10.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.