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Santa Clara BroncosBrendan Yarusso
#50 · G · 6' 1" · 185 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Mar 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 2.5 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
2.5 PTS
L5 2.5 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 2.2 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — vs LMU
Jan 11, 2026
113thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
LMU allows 11.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 89 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Brendan Yarusso has gone over 2.5 PTS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LMU has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 113th-most PTS of 726 teams (11.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.