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Houston Christian HuskiesCaleb Gaston
#10 · F · 6' 7" · 220 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 1.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.1 PTS(×1.07 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 1.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — vs SFA
Feb 28, 2026
512thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
SFA allows 7.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 61 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Caleb Gaston has gone over 1.5 PTS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. SFA has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 512th-most PTS of 708 teams (7.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.