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Idaho State BengalsCaleb Hollenbeck
#15 · G · 6' 4" · 189 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Mar 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
7.2 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 6.5 · med 6.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season21 games
57%over
12 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–76%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 19/21 | ||
| 62% | 13/21 | ||
| 57% | 12/21 | ||
| 5.5Current | 57% | 12/21 | |
| 43% | 9/21 | ||
| 43% | 9/21 | ||
| 33% | 7/21 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home77%10/13Medium
Away25%2/8Low
Days since last game
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — vs GASO
Mar 9, 2026
111thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
GASO allows 11.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 113 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caleb Hollenbeck has gone over 5.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 57% across the full season. GASO has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 111th-most PTS of 726 teams (11.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.