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Clemson TigersCarter Welling
#22 · F · 6' 10" · 225 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 12.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 43/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency61supports it
Projection
12.2 PTS(×0.93 context)
L5 14.0 · L10 13.4 · med 13.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 10.4 · ceil 14.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2018 games
61%over
11 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%Season18 games
61%over
11 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 15/18 | ||
| 78% | 14/18 | ||
| 72% | 13/18 | ||
| 12.5Current | 61% | 11/18 | |
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 17% | 3/18 | ||
| 17% | 3/18 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days80%4/5Low
3+ days60%6/10Low
Last matchup — vs GT
Mar 7, 2026
191stof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
GT allows 9.4 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 52 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Carter Welling has gone over 12.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 61% across the full season. GT has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 191st-most PTS of 708 teams (9.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.