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Furman PaladinsCharles Johnston
#1 · F · 6' 11" · 225 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Mar 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 9.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 34/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)84supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
7.9 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 7.9 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.2 · ceil 13.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season22 games
41%over
9 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–61%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 16/22 | ||
| 68% | 15/22 | ||
| 59% | 13/22 | ||
| 9.5Current | 41% | 9/22 | |
| 41% | 9/22 | ||
| 27% | 6/22 | ||
| 23% | 5/22 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%2/10Low
Away58%7/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — @ SAM
Mar 7, 2026
392ndof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
SAM allows 8.2 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 55 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Charles Johnston has gone over 9.5 PTS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 41% across the full season. SAM has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 392nd-most PTS of 708 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.