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Morgan State BearsChristian Oliver
#21 · C · 6' 10" · 250 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Mar 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 6.5 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.1 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 6.5 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 6.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days75%6/8Low
Last matchup — vs HOW
Feb 28, 2026
388thof 479 in PTS allowed to centers
HOW allows 4.8 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Christian Oliver has gone over 6.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. HOW has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 388th-most PTS of 479 teams (4.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.