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San Diego TorerosD'Arrae Goodwin
#3 · F · 6' 6" · 205 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Dec 31, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 6.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 41% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
5.6 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 6.0 · L10 6.1 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.2 · ceil 9.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 6.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs NAU
Dec 13, 2025
385thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
NAU allows 8.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 66 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, D'Arrae Goodwin has gone over 6.5 PTS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NAU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 385th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.