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Milwaukee PanthersDanilo Jovanovich
#3 · F · 6' 8" · 227 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 15.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 16.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 37/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency58neutral
Projection
17.6 PTS(×1.07 context)
L5 17.0 · L10 15.9 · med 17.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 14.4 · ceil 18.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Season10 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 16.5Current | 60% | 6/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — @ GB
Jan 6, 2026
80thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
GB allows 10.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 56 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Danilo Jovanovich has gone over 16.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 80th-most PTS of 708 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.