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Texas LonghornsDeclan Duru Jr.
#4 · F · 6' 8" · 235 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Mar 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 1.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.7 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — vs LEM
Dec 17, 2025
283rdof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
LEM allows 8.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 44 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Declan Duru Jr. has gone over 1.5 PTS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LEM has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 283rd-most PTS of 708 teams (8.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.