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Stephen F. Austin LumberjacksGediminas Alisas
#17 · F · 19 games
Stats updated: Mar 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 7.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 9/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
8.6 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 8.6 · L10 7.4 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.6 · ceil 9.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 17/19 | ||
| 79% | 15/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 6.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 21% | 4/19 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days58%7/12Low
Last matchup — @ TLSA
Mar 18, 2026
362ndof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
TLSA allows 8.4 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 71 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gediminas Alisas has gone over 6.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. TLSA has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 362nd-most PTS of 708 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.