Loading…
Jacksonville DolphinsHayden Wood
#8 · G · 6' 6" · 205 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Mar 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 14.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
19.2 PTS(×1.07 context)
L5 19.2 · L10 15.3 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.2 · ceil 22.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days67%6/9Low
Last matchup — @ BELL
Mar 4, 2026
211thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
BELL allows 10.5 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 104 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Hayden Wood has gone over 13.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. BELL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 211th-most PTS of 726 teams (10.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.