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Ohio State BuckeyesIvan Njegovan
#7 · C · 7' 2" · 260 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 4.0 PTS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 41/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
3.1 PTS(×0.89 context)
L5 3.6 · L10 4.0 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Last 209 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Season9 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 3.5Current | 67% | 6/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs YSU
Nov 6, 2026
7thof 188 in PTS allowed to centers
YSU allows 15.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Ivan Njegovan has gone over 3.5 PTS 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. YSU has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 188 teams (15.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.