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SMU MustangsJaden Toombs
#10 · C · 6' 10" · 230 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Mar 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 17.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 16.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 23/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency64supports it
Projection
17.1 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 16.0 · L10 17.0 · med 16.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 13.6 · ceil 19.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 16.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — vs M-OH
Mar 19, 2026
64thof 479 in PTS allowed to centers
M-OH allows 10.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jaden Toombs has gone over 16.5 PTS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. M-OH has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 64th-most PTS of 479 teams (10.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.