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Idaho State BengalsJamison Guerra
#2 · PG · 6' 0" · 200 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 10.2 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
8.0 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 8.0 · L10 9.3 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 4.2 · ceil 14.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season22 games
45%over
10 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 15/22 | ||
| 64% | 14/22 | ||
| 59% | 13/22 | ||
| 8.5Current | 45% | 10/22 | |
| 41% | 9/22 | ||
| 36% | 8/22 | ||
| 32% | 7/22 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%6/12Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/3Low
1 day100%2/2Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — vs NAU
Mar 8, 2026
500thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
NAU allows 8.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 106 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jamison Guerra has gone over 8.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. NAU has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 500th-most PTS of 726 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.