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SIU Edwardsville CougarsJo Valrie
#33 · F · 6' 5" · 180 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Mar 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 6.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
5.6 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 6.0 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 6.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 | ||
| 18% | 3/17 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days36%4/11Low
Last matchup — vs WIU
Feb 27, 2026
557thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
WIU allows 6.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 61 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jo Valrie has gone over 6.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. WIU has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 557th-most PTS of 708 teams (6.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.