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Davidson WildcatsJoe Hurlburt
#8 · G · 6' 11" · 235 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Dec 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 3.3 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.5 PTS
L5 3.3 · L10 3.3 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.8 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Last matchup — @ KU
Dec 23, 2025
246thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
KU allows 10.2 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 88 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Joe Hurlburt has gone over 3.5 PTS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KU has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 246th-most PTS of 726 teams (10.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.