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Richmond SpidersJonathan Beagle
#9 · F · 6' 10" · 250 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Mar 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 7.2 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.3 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 5.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 12.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 5.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
3+ days56%5/9Low
Last matchup — vs GMU
Feb 11, 2026
300thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
GMU allows 8.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 66 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Beagle has gone over 5.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. GMU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 300th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.