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Omaha MavericksJulian Margrave
#2 · F · 6' 10" · 230 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 7.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
7.9 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 7.4 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 11.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 7.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ NDSU
Mar 8, 2026
489thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
NDSU allows 7.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 65 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Julian Margrave has gone over 7.5 PTS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. NDSU has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 489th-most PTS of 708 teams (7.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.