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Southern Utah ThunderbirdsKai Burdick
#25 · C · 7' 0" · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 8.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 41% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
10.0 PTS(×1.07 context)
L5 10.4 · L10 8.7 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.6 · ceil 11.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 8.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day100%1/1Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — @ UTA
Mar 13, 2026
112thof 479 in PTS allowed to centers
UTA allows 9.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Kai Burdick has gone over 8.5 PTS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. UTA has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 112th-most PTS of 479 teams (9.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.