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California Golden BearsMantas Kocanas
#17 · C · 6' 11" · 235 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Mar 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 2.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 39/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.7 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 2.8 · L10 2.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.6 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Last 209 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Season9 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 2.5Current | 67% | 6/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — vs STAN
Feb 21, 2026
295thof 479 in PTS allowed to centers
STAN allows 6.3 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 11 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Mantas Kocanas has gone over 2.5 PTS 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. STAN has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 295th-most PTS of 479 teams (6.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.