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Western Carolina CatamountsMarcus Kell
#23 · F · 6' 8" · 213 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 15.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 14.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency40argues against it
Projection
15.1 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 14.2 · L10 14.5 · med 13.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.0 · ceil 18.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 65% | 13/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 35% | 7/20 | ||
| 30% | 6/20 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days67%8/12Low
Last matchup — @ ETSU
Mar 8, 2026
335thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
ETSU allows 8.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 62 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Marcus Kell has gone over 14.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. ETSU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 335th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.