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Morgan State BearsMatar Wade
#5 · F · 6' 8" · 210 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Feb 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 2.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 30/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 1.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs SCST
Jan 10, 2026
323rdof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
SCST allows 8.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 52 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Matar Wade has gone over 1.5 PTS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SCST has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 323rd-most PTS of 708 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.