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Baylor BearsMichael Rataj
#12 · G · 6' 8" · 230 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
7.9 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 7.5 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 12.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season24 games
50%over
12 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 20/24 | ||
| 71% | 17/24 | ||
| 58% | 14/24 | ||
| 7.5Current | 50% | 12/24 | |
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 42% | 10/24 | ||
| 38% | 9/24 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home59%10/17Medium
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days67%10/15Medium
Last matchup — vs UTAH
Mar 7, 2026
55thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
UTAH allows 11.9 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 80 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Rataj has gone over 7.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. UTAH has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 55th-most PTS of 726 teams (11.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.