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Mississippi Valley State Delta DevilsMussa Mzein
#20 · C · 6' 10" · 245 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Mar 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 4.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.0 PTS(×1.07 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 3.9 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 82% | 14/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 4.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 24% | 4/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — @ UAPB
Feb 28, 2026
149thof 479 in PTS allowed to centers
UAPB allows 8.4 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mussa Mzein has gone over 4.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. UAPB has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 149th-most PTS of 479 teams (8.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.