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Purdue BoilermakersOmer Mayer
#17 · G · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Mar 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 8.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
7.3 PTS(×0.91 context)
L5 7.2 · L10 8.1 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.8 · ceil 10.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 17/20 | ||
| 80% | 16/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 7.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 25% | 5/20 | ||
| 20% | 4/20 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%8/14Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Last matchup — vs QUC
Mar 20, 2026
235thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
QUC allows 10.3 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 97 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Omer Mayer has gone over 7.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. QUC has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 235th-most PTS of 726 teams (10.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.