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UT Martin SkyhawksPedro Santos
#9 · G · 6' 7" · 200 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 9.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 13/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
10.6 PTS(×1.06 context)
L5 12.6 · L10 9.8 · med 9.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 9.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day67%2/3Low
3+ days55%6/11Low
Last matchup — @ TNST
Mar 7, 2026
163rdof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
TNST allows 10.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 93 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Pedro Santos has gone over 9.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. TNST has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 163rd-most PTS of 726 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.