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Long Beach State BeachRob Diaz III
#0 · G · 6' 2" · 17 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 11.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 37% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.2 PTS(×1.08 context)
L5 14.4 · L10 13.2 · med 12.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.2 · ceil 17.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 9.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days36%5/14Medium
Last matchup — vs UCD
Mar 6, 2026
239thof 726 in PTS allowed to guards
UCD allows 10.2 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 109 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rob Diaz III has gone over 9.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 41% across the full season. UCD has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 239th-most PTS of 726 teams (10.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.