Loading…
Louisville CardinalsSananda Fru
#13 · F · 6' 11" · 250 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Mar 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 11.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
9.4 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 8.2 · L10 9.3 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 14.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season22 games
55%over
12 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18/22 | ||
| 73% | 16/22 | ||
| 68% | 15/22 | ||
| 10.5Current | 55% | 12/22 | |
| 45% | 10/22 | ||
| 36% | 8/22 | ||
| 27% | 6/22 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away55%6/11Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — vs USF
Mar 19, 2026
393rdof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
USF allows 8.2 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 56 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sananda Fru has gone over 10.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 55% across the full season. USF has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 393rd-most PTS of 708 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.