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Iona GaelsToby Harris
#30 · F · 15 games
Stats updated: Mar 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Points · season avg 14.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
12.4 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 12.2 · L10 11.1 · med 10.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.0 · ceil 18.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
60%over
9 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–80%Season15 games
60%over
9 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–80%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 13.5Current | 60% | 9/15 | |
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away86%6/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day100%1/1Low
3+ days64%7/11Low
Last matchup — vs SHU
Mar 5, 2026
84thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
SHU allows 10.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Toby Harris has gone over 13.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 60% across the full season. SHU has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 84th-most PTS of 708 teams (10.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.