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Xavier MusketeersTre Carroll
#12 · F · 20 games
Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 19.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)44neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
19.8 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 20.6 · L10 22.2 · med 22.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.0 · ceil 28.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 60% | 12/20 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 30% | 6/20 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day50%1/2Low
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Last matchup — @ CONN
Mar 12, 2026
296thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
CONN allows 8.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 70 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tre Carroll has gone over 18.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. CONN has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 296th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.