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Northern Iowa PanthersWill Hornseth
#13 · F · 6' 8" · 235 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Mar 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 12.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
11.8 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 11.6 · L10 13.1 · med 13.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.2 · ceil 15.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season22 games
50%over
11 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 17/22 | ||
| 64% | 14/22 | ||
| 55% | 12/22 | ||
| 12.5Current | 50% | 11/22 | |
| 41% | 9/22 | ||
| 27% | 6/22 | ||
| 14% | 3/22 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day67%2/3Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — @ UIC
Mar 8, 2026
377thof 708 in PTS allowed to forwards
UIC allows 8.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 75 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Will Hornseth has gone over 12.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. UIC has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 377th-most PTS of 708 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.