New York Yankees

Aaron Judge Stolen Bases

Stats updated: May 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Judge has gone over 0.5 SB in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStolen Bases · season avg 0.1 SB · our line

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Injured ListAaron Judge isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Ribs Fracture
Est. return:: Aug 18, 2026

Cashman explained that "there's a very high likelihood" Judge will be able to recover from the fracture in his right ribs in time to play again this season but acknowledged that "there's challenges with all that too." Naturally, Judge's return could be impacted by New York's place in the standings, and the team currently sits 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East but a comfortable six games up for a wild-card spot. Judge hasn't played since May 31, and he's yet to resume baseball activities, so despite Cashman's optimism, the slugger doesn't appear anywhere close to rejoining the big-league club.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SBStolen Bases

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.0 SB(×1.04 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2020 games

0%over

0 over · 20 under

High confidence95% CI 0%–16%

Season59 games

8%over

5 over · 54 under

High confidence95% CI 4%–18%

Alternate lines — Stolen Bases (SB)

SB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	5/59
	0%	0/59
	0%	0/59
	0%	0/59

Last 20 games — SB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home8%2/26High

Away9%3/33High

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)8%4/49High

1 day11%1/9Medium

With a teammate out

How this SB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Giancarlo Stanton out · Right Calf Strain-0.2 SB when he sits

Without (35g)

0.0 SB

0% over 0.5

With (24g)

0.2 SB

21% over 0.5

Next matchup — vs ATL

Aug 8, 2026

10thof 30 in SB allowed to hitters

ATL pitching allows 0.8 SB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 116 games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Judge has gone over 0.5 SB 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 8% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most SB of 30 teams (0.8 per game). His game-to-game SB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees

neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.