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Washington NationalsAbimelec Ortiz
#81 · 1B · 5-10 · 230 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Puerto Rico
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsWarm overFireFactor 50/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency4argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×1.10 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 0.6 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Last 104 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Last 204 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Season4 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 75% | 3/4 | |
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 9, 2026
13thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Abimelec Ortiz has gone over 0.5 H 3 of 4 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.