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Baltimore OriolesAdley Rutschman Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jul 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Adley Rutschman has gone over 4.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.6 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListAdley Rutschman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
After surging to a 22-4 record over the past 26 games to put itself back in the thick of the playoff race, Boston will shore up one of the few remaining weaknesses on its roster by bringing in a bona fide No. 1 catcher in Rutschman. The 28-year-old backstop has been on the shelf since July 20 due to left wrist inflammation, but he resumed hitting over the weekend and is expected to head out on a rehab assignment during the upcoming week. If all goes well, Rutschman could be ready to make his Boston debut at some point during the team's nine-game, three-city road trip that begins Friday. Before going down with the injury, Rutschman was in the midst of a resurgent 2026 campaign with the Orioles, slashing .251/.331/.433 with eight home runs and a career-low 14.1 percent strikeout rate over 284 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 4.5 FSHitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
5.7 FS(×0.98 context)
L5 4.4 · L10 6.3 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 12.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season64 games
52%over
33 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 40%–63%Alternate lines — Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 52/64 | ||
| 75% | 48/64 | ||
| 63% | 40/64 | ||
| 4.5Current | 52% | 33/64 | |
| 41% | 26/64 | ||
| 36% | 23/64 | ||
| 31% | 20/64 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%21/35Medium
Away41%12/29Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%12/36Medium
1 day68%13/19Medium
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Samuel Basallo out · Right Shoulder Inflammation+2.2 FS when he sits
Without (9g)
9.4 FS
67% over 4.5
With (55g)
7.3 FS
49% over 4.5
Blaze Alexander out · Left Hand Fracture+3.9 FS when he sits
Without (17g)
10.4 FS
53% over 4.5
With (47g)
6.6 FS
51% over 4.5
Next matchup — @ TEX
Aug 8, 2026
17thof 30 in FS allowed to hitters
TEX pitching allows 64.2 FS per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adley Rutschman has gone over 4.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. TEX has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 17th-most FS of 30 teams (64.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.
More Adley Rutschman research
Adley Rutschman — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Rutschman Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Rutschman Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Rutschman RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Rutschman Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.