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San Francisco GiantsAdrian Houser
#12 · P · 6-4 · 227 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListAdrian Houser isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Houser exited his start versus the Reds Aug. 25 due to a right forearm strain. The right-hander got a MRI Aug. 26 that revealed the extent of the injury. With the Giants out of the playoff picture, Houser's season is being shut down. He concludes 2026 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 109.2 innings in 16 starts.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
2.8 K
L5 2.8 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season26 games
62%over
16 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–78%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 24/26 | ||
| 77% | 20/26 | ||
| 2.5Current | 62% | 16/26 | |
| 35% | 9/26 | ||
| 19% | 5/26 | ||
| 4% | 1/26 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%8/11Low
Away53%8/15Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days57%13/23Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Adrian Houser has gone over 2.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 62% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.