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New York YankeesAli Sánchez
#39 · C · 6-0 · 200 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 2/100· model 18% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)2argues against it
Projection vs line29argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.7 H(×0.92 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
15%over
3 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%Season24 games
21%over
5 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 9%–40%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 12/24 | ||
| 1.5Current | 21% | 5/24 | |
| 4% | 1/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home10%1/10Medium
Away29%4/14Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days8%1/12Medium
Next matchup — vs TB
Sep 22, 2026
27thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TB pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ali Sánchez has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 21% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 27th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-120
-6.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-33.0%
Our model puts the over at 17.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 21%.