Loading…
Washington NationalsAndrés Chaparro
#87 · 1B · 6-0 · 200 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Andrés Chaparro's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Head Not Specified
Despite passing concussion tests after he made an early exit from Sunday's 4-2 loss to Atlanta when he was struck in the helmet by a pitch, Chaparro will be kept on the bench for the series opener in Philadelphia. Even though the Nationals traded Luis Garcia to the Yankees following Sunday's contest, Chaparro could end up sticking in his short-side platoon role at first base rather than seeing a major uptick in an opportunities against right-handed pitching. Washington recalled the left-handed-hitting Abimelec Ortiz from Triple-A Rochester on Monday, and he'll step in at first base right away in the Nationals' first game post-Garcia while right-hander Aaron Nola toes the slab for the Phillies.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 1/100· model 8% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line14argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
0%over
0 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%Last 2020 games
5%over
1 over · 19 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–24%Season33 games
6%over
2 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 2%–20%Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/11Medium
Away9%2/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/13High
1 day0%0/4Low
2 days0%0/7Medium
3+ days13%1/8Medium
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Curtis Mead out · Left Wrist Fracture
Without (9g)
0.6 H
11% over 1.5
With (24g)
0.6 H
4% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 8, 2026
13thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Andrés Chaparro has gone over 1.5 H 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 6% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 56.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 43.5%
Best Over
RT Sports-137
-2.2% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet+120
-4.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-48.3%
Our model puts the over at 8.2% vs the market's no-vig 56.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.