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Seattle MarinersAndrés Muñoz
#75 · P · 6-2 · 222 lb · 61 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Mexico
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Andrés Muñoz's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Knee
Imaging on Munoz's knee didn't reveal any significant issue, and he could be available to pitch in Tuesday's game against the Astros if he responds well to pregame treatment. Otherwise, Gabe Speier and Jose Ferrer would likely be the Mariners' top high-leverage options.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 5/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
1.2 K(×1.08 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season61 games
46%over
28 over · 33 under
High confidence95% CI 34%–58%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 55/61 | ||
| 1.5Current | 46% | 28/61 | |
| 10% | 6/61 | ||
| 0% | 0/61 | ||
| 0% | 0/61 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%15/32Medium
Away45%13/29Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%6/12Low
1 day47%7/15Low
2 days31%5/16Medium
3+ days53%9/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brendan Donovan out · Not Specified Concussion Concussion-0.3 K when he sits
Without (47g)
1.4 K
43% over 1.5
With (14g)
1.7 K
57% over 1.5
Colt Emerson out · Left Wrist Surgery+0.1 K when he sits
Without (37g)
1.5 K
46% over 1.5
With (24g)
1.4 K
46% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Andrés Muñoz has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 46% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.