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Miami MarlinsAndrew Nardi
#43 · P · 6-3 · 215 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: May 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListAndrew Nardi isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Ribs Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2026
It's unclear where Nardi is at in his throwing program, but the reliever has progressed enough that he believes he's not far off from pitching in games. The lefty collected a 5.16 ERA and 27:11 K:BB over 22.2 innings before going down with a left ribcage stress reaction in late May.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.3 K
L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season25 games
32%over
8 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–52%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 18/25 | ||
| 1.5Current | 32% | 8/25 | |
| 4% | 1/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 | ||
| 0% | 0/25 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%6/14Low
Away18%2/11Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)17%1/6Low
1 day29%2/7Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Andrew Nardi has gone over 1.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 32% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 32%.