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Philadelphia PhilliesAndrew Painter
#24 · P · 6-7 · 215 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
4.0 K
L5 4.0 · L10 3.5 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 16/16 | ||
| 88% | 14/16 | ||
| 81% | 13/16 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rafael Marchán out · Left Knee Tendinitis+0.2 K when he sits
Without (11g)
4.0 K
55% over 3.5
With (5g)
3.8 K
40% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Andrew Painter has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 58.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 42.0%
Best Over
BetRivers-159
-5.5% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+128
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.9%
Our model puts the over at 53.1% vs the market's no-vig 58.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.