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Milwaukee BrewersAngel Zerpa
#61 · P · 6-0 · 237 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Apr 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListAngel Zerpa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Jul 1, 2027
This transaction has been an eventuality since it was announced in early May that Zerpa required a UCL reconstruction on his left elbow. The 26-year-old is expected to be sidelined until around midseason of 2027.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.9 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day60%3/5Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Angel Zerpa has gone over 0.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.