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Los Angeles DodgersBlake Snell
#7 · P · 6-4 · 225 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Linepays more
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.5 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Blake Snell's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Groin Soreness
Snell left his start Wednesday after just one inning due to left groin tightness, saying that he initially felt something was wrong during his pregame bullpen session. The 33-year-old has a history of groin issues and noted that it likely would've evolved into a more serious injury if he pitched through it, so he's hopeful that by limiting himself to just one inning Wednesday, he'll avoid needing to miss more time. Manager Dave Roberts added that it's possible Snell will be able to take the mound again before the end of the regular season, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com, but the Dodgers will first need to make sure that the southpaw's condition doesn't worsen over the next several days.
Verdict
vs 9.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 3/100· model 16% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)18argues against it
Projection vs line26argues against it
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
6.0 K
L5 6.4 · L10 6.5 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 9.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Last 208 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Season8 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Situational splits
Over 9.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shohei Ohtani out · Left Biceps Inflammation-1.9 K when he sits
Without (3g)
5.3 K
0% over 9.5
With (5g)
7.2 K
40% over 9.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Blake Snell has gone over 9.5 K 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles Dodgers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.08)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
7 books @ 7.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 46.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 53.1%
Best Over
DraftKings+105
-3.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-108
+2.2% EV
Model vs market (over)-31.2%
Our model puts the over at 15.7% vs the market's no-vig 46.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (7.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.