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Boston Red SoxBrayan Bello
#66 · P · 6-1 · 195 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
3.0 K
L5 3.2 · L10 3.6 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 17/17 | ||
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 3.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days60%9/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Roman Anthony out · Right Finger Sprain+0.8 K when he sits
Without (12g)
3.8 K
58% over 3.5
With (5g)
3.0 K
40% over 3.5
Trevor Story out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery-0.2 K when he sits
Without (9g)
3.4 K
56% over 3.5
With (8g)
3.6 K
50% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Brayan Bello has gone over 3.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.