Loading…
Seattle MarinersBrendan Donovan Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brendan Donovan has gone over 4.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBrendan Donovan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Groin Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Although ready to return, Donovan will spend time with his family "but he's through his rehab. He feels good and ready to go," Hollander relayed Friday. Donovan's return is good news for the Mariners, whose infield depth took a hit after the team placed J.P. Crawford (wrist) on the 10-day injured list. Prior to landing on the 10-day IL in mid-May due to a left groin strain, Donovan was slashing .274/.386/.452 with one steal, three home runs and eight RBI over 101 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 4.5 FSHitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
4.2 FS(×0.89 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 4.6 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 11.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season25 games
52%over
13 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–70%Alternate lines — Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 19/25 | ||
| 68% | 17/25 | ||
| 56% | 14/25 | ||
| 4.5Current | 52% | 13/25 | |
| 44% | 11/25 | ||
| 40% | 10/25 | ||
| 36% | 9/25 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home54%7/13Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)56%9/16Medium
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Aug 8, 2026
23rdof 30 in FS allowed to hitters
TB pitching allows 61.3 FS per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brendan Donovan has gone over 4.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 52% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most FS of 30 teams (61.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.
More Brendan Donovan research
Brendan Donovan — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Donovan Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Donovan Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Donovan RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Donovan Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.