Houston Astros

Brice Matthews Runs

Stats updated: Jul 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brice Matthews has gone over 0.5 R in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.4 R · our line

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Injured ListBrice Matthews isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Sprain
Est. return:: Aug 15, 2026

Matthews hurt his knee when he collided with the outfield wall with two outs in the bottom of the first while attempting to reel in a deep fly off the bat of Josh Jung. Taylor Trammell pinch hit for Matthews when his first turn in the batting order came up in the second inning. Trammell will likely serve as the Astros' primary option in center field if the knee issue forces Matthews to the injured list coming out of the All-Star break.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.4 R(×0.94 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

35%over

7 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%

Season61 games

31%over

19 over · 42 under

High confidence95% CI 21%–44%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	31%	19/61
	5%	3/61
	0%	0/61
	0%	0/61

Last 20 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home21%5/24Medium

Away38%14/37Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)22%8/36Medium

1 day33%4/12Low

2 days75%3/4Low

3+ days43%3/7Low

With a teammate out

How this R line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Carlos Correa out · Left Ankle Surgery

Without (42g)

0.4 R

29% over 0.5

With (19g)

0.4 R

37% over 0.5

Next matchup — @ SD

Aug 8, 2026

19thof 30 in R allowed to hitters

SD pitching allows 4.4 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 117 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brice Matthews has gone over 0.5 R 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 31% across the full season. SD has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 19th-most R of 30 teams (4.4 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Daikin Park · Houston Astros

neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.